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« Dr Cullen's Dilemma | Main | The big story »

Comments

Danyl Mclauchlan

He is a "social researcher" apparently. Which of course makes him eminently qualified to answer questions on atmospheric physics and oceanography.

Can you remind us all what your qualifications on the subject are?

robk

As with a lot of these things where you have two or more 'experts' stating opposite points of view, the man in the street has to pick which expert (if any) they will tend to believe. All we can go on really, is their qualifications in the subject, AND our perception of their integrity (if any).

AVG

robk is completely right. My Grandma always said.' Take everything with a pinch of salt.' Wise old girl that she was.!

John Boy

He was picked by a politician. He'll be there to push the barrow not deal with facts.

AcidComments

"He was picked by a politician. He'll be there to push the barrow not deal with facts."

Exactly!

And don't forgot Al Gore invented the internet!

David W

he also probably didn't pick a meteorologist because those guys don't study climate...

peter

The amount of dispute of global warming is attracting my interest.

Does anyone know of a site that properly presents both pro's and con's of global warming.

As much as anything the motivations of all players are being questioned. On one side, a gravy train of scientists trying to prevent the end of the world. On the other side, fundamentalists that are simply wanting to proceed on the basis that mankind "has dominion" over anything - and if Revelation's doom is hastened then so much the better!

John Boy

I agree with the motivation aspect Peter except that while I stand to die like everyone else (not my preferred option) I'm not on the gravy train to milk someone else's money in a feeding frenzy for the last little while as we head toward what ever nature has in store. Those places are for people like Gore who preaches the solution while living the problem.

The other day I saw a huge depression in the ground. It turned out to be Helen's carbon footprint.

Andrei

Can you remind us all what your qualifications on the subject are?

Well Danyl I have worked with non-linear differential equations, including the Navier-Stokes equations (admittedly many years ago now). And these types of equations in most cases do not have general analytic solutions. And since the hundreds of millions of them are needed to describe the weather processes of the planet most of which to date have not even been formulated let alone solved even in approximation long term weather forecasting is notoriously unreliable.

Furthermore there is no accounting for left field stuff .e.g Meteor strikes as ended the Cretaceous nor large scale volcanic activity which ended the Permian eras.

Even the relatively small eruption (in geologic terms but large in our lifetime) of Mt Pinatubo had a measurable cooling effect on the earth's climate which lasted eighteen months or so.

Care to predict when a a large meteor will next strike or a major volcanic eruption is going to occur? You can't and nor can anybody else.

After an intense season of Hurricane activity in 2005 similar activity was predicted for 2006 and this year. They have been notably quiet in this regard which all goes to show how difficulties of producing accurate forecasts of future weather even in the short term let alone far future.

Still arguing with true believers with logic, math or history is a waste of time

peter

I am impressed with your experience in non-linear differential equations, and no doubt you have built many numerical analysis models in an attempt to model the world's climate as well.

BUT..

Is this the only way to analyse this particular problem?

I would have thought that there would have been more obvious methods than this.

For example, you don't need to analyse spray from the sea using this method to prove that is causing metallic surfaces to rust more quickly than if they were inland.

And these days, I don't think you would use this method to show that accelerated tarnishing of silver in Rotorua is caused by the sulphuric fumes?

AcidComments


Hey is Al Gore going to be knocking up Mother Nature for Carbon Credits?
---------------------------

How many active volcanoes known?
Erupting now: perhaps 20
Each year: 50-70
Each decade: about 160
Historical eruptions: about 550
Known Holocene eruptions (last 10,000 years): about 1300
Known (and possible) Holocene eruptions: about 1500

Note that these figures do not include the large number of eruptions (and undescribed volcanoes) on the deep sea floor. Estimates of global magma budgets suggest that roughly 3/4 of the lava reaching Earth's surface does so unnoticed at submarine midocean ridges (see below).


http://www.volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?faq=03


David W

AC,

The long-term average amount of CO2 released by volcanism is tiny compared with human emissions. A giant, world wide volcanic event like the one that ended the Permian (the biggest mass-extinction so far - though we are dong our best to beat that one...) would have a big warming effect but I suspect there would be some other pressing problems should that happen

Andrei,

Climate and Weather are different

AcidComments

NASA's SeaWiFS Project: 'Oceans Main Source of Carbon Release'

by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media

Do oceans remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or contribute to it? The answer is crucial for climate change. NASA's SeaWiFS project (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of View Sensor) (SeaWiFS) has been watching the oceans twenty-four hours a day every day since September 1997. Evidence shows oceans major source of carbon.

It provides quantitative data on the biological state of the global oceans through remote color sensing. The color in most of the world's oceans varies with the concentration of chlorophyll and other plant pigments contained in the phytoplankton, the greater the concentration of plant pigments, the greener the water. As an orbiting sensor can view every square kilometer of cloud-free ocean every 48 hours, satellite-acquired ocean color data are valuable for determining the abundance of ocean life and to assess the ocean's role in climate change.

One big question the SeaWiFS project wants to answer is whether the oceans are a carbon source that adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, or a carbon sink that removes it from the atmosphere, which is crucial to monitoring climate change and taking appropriate action. The oceans not only contain 97 percent of all the water on earth, they are also the biggest carbon reservoir, and hence a major player in climate and climate change (Oceans and climate change, this series).

http://earthchangesmedia.com/secure/3247.326/article-9162519470.php

Andrei

The long-term average amount of CO2 released by volcanism is tiny compared with human emissions

David do you have the figures? If so how were they collected?

How do you monitor places like deception Island in Antarctica for example.

Let alone all the undersea volcanoes most of which are barely mapped bubbling merrily away.

Climate and Weather are different

Great slogan but isn't weather just the current manifestation of climate?

If weather is unpredictable how can climate be predictable?

We know of the past major alternations between ice ages and the interglacials but nobody has a robust theory that shows why the flips between the two states have occurred at semi-regular intervals.

If you cannot account for what has happened in the past how can you have confidence in predictions of the future?

Danyl Mclauchlan

Well Danyl I have worked with non-linear differential equations . . .

I also use differential equations in my work and still consider myself massively unqualified to discuss the area of climate change (which is why I don't get drawn into the science of these discussions).

Many of the issues around climate change are related to topics of public policy and international development; five seconds on google reveals that Mr Pearce is a graduate of KSG at Harvard, the most prestigious place in the world to study . . . public policy and international development.

You were a little vague about your ACTUAL qualifications Andrei, but given the towering contempt with which you dismissed Pearce's expertise I'm sure they're much more impressive than that of a mere Harvard graduate . . ?

Andrei

Danyl would you subject yourself to open heart surgery performed by an expert in public policy and international development?

My point in bringing up his qualifications is to suggest that this whole climate change thing has more about public policy and international development than it is about science. Actually it is international undevelopment in this case.

And if you are familiar with families of non-linear differential equations you should be fully aware that except in restricted circumstances the long term behaviour of any system they describe is essentially unpredictable.

I can use elementary mechanics to describe the behaviour of the balls in the Lotto machine but for the life of me I haven't been able to predict next weeks draw, I've been trying for years now without success.

And that is a trivial problem compared to the physics of the earth's atmosphere and oceans.

David W

Great slogan but isn't weather just the current manifestation of climate?

If weather is unpredictable how can climate be predictable?

And individual coin toss is unpredictable. Take that coin and toss it a thousand times and the proportion of heads is boringly predictable. Now, weight the coin so that it is more likely to come up heads, each toss is still unpredictable but the net effect of the change can be predicted (and the more you understand the changes that have been made to the coin the smaller the error bars on your estimate of the magnitude of that change become).

You can take you pick of estimates for CO2 emitted from volcanoes but 2 billion tonnes per year seems to be generous estimate - about 1% of human emissions. If you really care about it check out this (pdf)

Sam Finnemore

"Still arguing with true believers with logic, math or history is a waste of time"

I often feel like this on TBR.cc sometimes, but it doesn't stop me trying. :)

PhilBest

Hope Dr Vincent Gray goes along tonight and gives them hell.

Dr Vincent Gray lives in Crofton Downs, and is one of the IPCC "expert reviewers", the one in fact who has made the most comments by far on every draft IPCC report. he is not funded by "big oil" or "big business". He is one of the most highly qualified climate researchers in the world.

So why is he treated like a leper by the mainstream media and the entire political establishment in NZ?

peter

Here is a link:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO0711/S00278.htm

Business Round Table sharing views of extreme right wing Christian fundamentalists

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