One paper concerns the effect of a warming climate on oceans and other sources of carbon dioxide on Earth, and found they will be slower to release more CO2, and thus do less to amplify warming than previously expected.
The second study analyzed a decline in water vapor — a potent greenhouse gas — in the upper levels of the atmosphere and found that it may have contributed to a decade-long halt in the rise of global temperatures since 1998.
Both studies are a bit technical, but they are important because they get to the cutting edge of climate science.
Amid the over-reaching catastrophic claims of environmentalists on one side, and cries of global warming being a great hoax from the other, there is actually a good deal of common ground among scientists.
All agree concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are increasing, and there's a general agreement that a doubling of CO2 levels this century, by themselves, will produce an increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit in global temperatures.
Positive feedback
By itself, this would not be catastrophic for the planet.
What scientists are actually interested in better understanding are so-called “feedback” loops from rising CO2 levels, which in turn could substantially amplify warming to catastrophic levels.
For example, as CO2 levels rise, and temperatures go up, the thinking is that the area of the planet covered by snow will decrease. Snow is very effective at reflecting heat back into space, so anything that replaces it will absorb more heat and further warm the planet.
This is a positive feedback. The question is: Will rising CO2 levels produce more positive or negative feedbacks?
For some scientists, including the skeptical Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the jury on feedbacks remains out.
“Climate science is a field that is not highly developed,” he said. “Really, it's still in its infancy.”
Other climate scientists would disagree, but as the two new papers this week show, researchers are still grappling to understand the balance of feedback loops. (read the rest here)
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