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Unlike you Ian, and others as late as yesterday who were trying to talk up McCain - I would make no attempt to talk up the Labour Party's chances on Saturday.

Many commentators are saying that both major parties have been nothing special this campaign - both colliding in the middle ground. Both headed by agnostics by the way.

Therefore I think it is reasonable to say that National Party could expect around 45% of the vote on Saturday and Labour around 35%.

Sticking to very round figures, the Greens would be hoping for around 10% but that might be ambitious.

Then you have ACT and Peter Dunne with around 4 seats with the Govt and Anderton with 1 seat with Labour. The Maori Party should have at least 4 seats to play with.

I expect that this is why Maori Party are being described as potential king makers.

But I think there is an air of resignation haunting Helen Clark, even though the troops are no doubt battling away at grass roots level.

But change after the election should be invigorating, whatever form it takes. Like all people who truly believe in democracy (however flawed) I would be wanting to get to know and support my local MP if the person changed.


ACT and National will together pick up around 65% - 70% of the votes.

We saw the shift in local body elections in places like Auckland - that stereotypically "liberally enlightened" centre of NZ's universe.

Prepare for a massive shift to the right.

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